North American Crude Oil Runs Forecast

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A highly detailed refinery crude runs forecast with updates on refinery level turnarounds for all refineries in the U.S. and Canada

Our approach uses a combination of public and proprietary data sources on planned and unplanned turnarounds to forecast refinery crude demand

Genscape’s North American Crude Oil Runs Forecast report examines publicly available turnaround information, proprietary refinery infrared camera signals, and forward crack spreads to guide our industry-leading crude oil demand forecast.

This product includes detailed PADD/Canada level refinery runs, utilization rates, and crude processing capacity forecasts for the major crude oil demand centers in North America. For further analysis, we include tables detailing each turnaround and its impact on crude runs by month. We also provide refinery-level forecasts for several refineries, including weekly updates based on our proprietary infrared camera signals. Individual refinery level forecasts include: MPC Garyville, Motiva Convent, Motiva Norco, PSX Belle Chasse, PSX Westlake, LYB Houston, XOM Beaumont, MPC Galveston Bay /TX City, PBR Pasadena, PSX Sweeny, VLO Port Arthur, VLO Three Rivers, and VLO Houston.

Methodology:

This report incorporates EIA/NEB/TX RRC monthly and weekly refinery runs, utilization, and capacity data alongside Genscape’s proprietary refinery infrared cameras to provide the most accurate and detailed-driven refinery forecast report on the market.

Genscape's Forecast:

• Provides detailed “bottom-up” analysis and forecast using data covering over 100 crude oil refineries in the U.S. and Canada
• Adjusts weekly based on weekly runs, utilization, capacity, and turnaround information by PADD region/Canada, and for 13 individual refineries (TX and LA)
• Offers comprehensive turnaround summary tables, refinery capacity expansions, and throughput guidance information for reference
• Includes corporate conference call notes for 18 publicly-traded refiners in North America

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Genscape's North American Crude Oil Runs Forecast:

• Every 6 weeks: 3 year forecast report including a corresponding Excel data sheet
  • Delivers the latest public data on refinery runs from multiple sources, bridging the gap between the actualized public data using estimates from Genscape’s proprietary refinery monitors, and also utilizes information on major planned turnarounds to inform our forward-looking view
  • Granular refinery-level forecast for 13 major refineries in TX and LA, including weekly updates based on proprietary data
  • Comprehensive turnaround coverage tables detailing planned distillation capacity offline, along with up-to-date unplanned outage information
• Weekly: Updated report and data file with weekly EIA/NEB runs, including commentary on the week’s operational upsets
• Quarterly: Comprehensive company conference call notes file covering 18 publicly-traded refiners in North America

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Benefits of Genscape's North American Crude Oil Runs Forecast:

• Most detailed and up-to-date data available, which is easily accessible and synthesized into a single report and data file
• Actionable intelligence to make efficient, strategic decisions in one of the world’s most vital areas of crude oil demand
• In-house analysis to bridge any gaps within refinery crude oil demand models
• Unlimited, real-time access to forecast team

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Please click here or below to download a sample of Genscape's Crude Oil Runs Forecast